Suburban voters -- both GOP and Dem -- want Iraq accountability

The more intransigent Republicans remain on Iraq, 1) the more likely they are to hold on and win this round in Congress, but 2) the more likely they are to see their careers cut short.

Suburban districts, once solid Red territory, has been trending our way for some time. And it's a trend (PDF) likely to accelerate because of the war, according to a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) poll of suburban voters in competitive congressional districts:

62 percent of voters in suburban districts – including two-thirds of voters in Republican-held suburban districts, want the Congress to send the President a new bill with some sort of restriction or deadline. As suburban voters increasingly side with Democrats on the spending bill debate, Republican incumbents are paying a price for supporting the President and their approval rating has dropped 7-points since  the debate started in early March.1

Voters in suburban districts are deeply dissatisfied with the war in Iraq and the President’s policies. Indeed, unfavorable feelings toward the war have progressively increased since the debate over the spending bill started -- from 59 percent in early March to nearly two-thirds after the president’s veto, and 61 percent of voters oppose the President’s current plan in Iraq. Interestingly, opposition to Bush’s policies is stronger in Republican-held suburban districts than Democratic-held districts and reached its highest level yet with two-thirds of voters opposing the President’s plan.

Democrats have little to worry about opposing Bush:

Democratic incumbents in suburban districts are strengthened by confronting the President on the Iraq spending bill debate. Indeed, voters agree with Democrats in Congress over President Bush by a 10-point margin and blame the President for the gridlock  by 18-points. But more importantly, Democratic incumbents in suburban districts enhanced their standing throughout this debate as their job approval improved consistently since early March and, in fact, reached it’s highest point after the President’s veto with 54 percent of voters approving their member’s job performance.  

And Republicans will have to eventually decide between supporting Bush's quagmire, or getting reelection.

Conversely, Republican members of Congress in suburban districts are taking a hit for siding with the President on this debate. Republican member’s approval rating currently stands at 44 percent – 7 points lower from where it stood when this debate started. It is true that Republicans’ approval rating improved marginally after the President’s veto, but not nearly enough to reach the pre-debate levels of support or affect suburban voters’ underlying opposition to the war.  

And moving forward? Voters -- Republican and Democrats -- want accountability.

Even though they are fairly split on the best way to move forward, six-in-ten suburban voters want Congress to send the President a bill with some form of restrictions and deadlines. The mandate for accountability is even stronger in Republican-held suburban districts where 68 percent of voters support options with restrictions, compared to 61 percent of voters in democratic-held suburban districts.