Analysis: Clinton faces uphill climb in remaining states

There are six weeks between now and the Pennsylvania primary, and just a handful of states still waiting to cast their ballots. So where does the Democratic race stand, and can it be said to still be a race? Here's a quick run-down of the states outstanding, and where Clinton and Obama can look to advance between now and June.

State	Date	Analysis	Clinton	Obama
Pennsylvania 158	4/22	Pennsylvania looks to be the most difficult state on the map for Obama to win, and the easiest for Clinton to claim. Al Giordano has looked at the state, and forecasts a "big delegate victory" for Clinton. He's projecting a 60-40 Clinton win, which he translates out to a net 26 for Clinton. I see no reason to doubt that, and that's the number I'm plugging in.	26
Guam 4	5/3	Do I have any specific knowledge of what's going to happen in Guam? No, not at all. I'm basing this slight Clinton pick-up on the fact that it's a fairly conservative Catholic territory, and Clinton has done well among Catholics. This could just as easily swing to native Pacific Islander Obama, though, so take this with a big grain of salt	2
Indiana 72	5/6	Of all the states left on the board, Indiana is probably the purest toss-up. It borders Obama's home state of Illinois, so he should get a regional boost from that. But it also borders Michigan and Ohio, at least one of which has been won by Clinton. It's the most conservative of the Rust Belt states, and is really divided between the Chicago-oriented northwest and the south of the state, which is pretty southern. So will it behave more like Ohio, or more like Wisconsin? I think Obama's proximity nets him a narrow win here, but it's the best shot for a Clinton surprise.		5
North Carolina 115	5/6	Just as it's very unlikely Clinton can lose Pennsylvania, it's very unlikely that Obama can lose North Carolina. I'm going to go conservative and give Obama a 15, but he could do much better than that.		15
West Virginia 28	5/13	West Virginia should trend strongly toward Clinton. There's no reason to think that the mostly white, working-class voters there will break differently than they have anywhere else. Not a big state, but a Clinton win.	4
Kentucky 51	5/20	Here's the thing: while I think Clinton will win Kentucky for the same reasons she won Ohio (and the same reasons I think she'll win West Virginia and Pennsylvania), this could very well be the last state Clinton can win. Michigan and Florida are open questions right now, and the remaining states favor Obama. Clinton will need to get a big, big win here, and surprise somewhere else.	8
Oregon 52	5/20	There's no reason to think that Oregon should be particularly different than Washington, which went heavily for Obama. Full of the latte liberals Obama has run strong with, it should more than offset a loss in Kentucky.		10
Puerto Rico 55	6/1	Puerto Rico is going to be interesting. It's the last major prize, save possibly Florida and Michigan. And at first blush, it would appear to be solid Clinton territory, with its obviously strongly Latino population. But here's the thing: Obama has the endorsement of An?bal Acevedo Vil?, the Puerto Rican governor. Traditionally, the governor has had a great degree of power in getting delegates apportioned, and there's no reason to think that will change this year.		15
Montana 16	6/3	Montana is one of those states that doesn't count, because it's in the middle of the country and there aren't a lot of people there. That's Obama territory, and he should romp there, though there aren't that many delegates at stake.		4
South Dakota 15	6/3	There's no reason to expect South Dakota is going to vote differently than Minnesota, North Dakota, Iowa, or Nebraska. It doesn't exactly deliver a huge delegate haul, but it should end the race nice little close-out run for Obama, blunting any chance for Clinton to claim that she's built momentum.		1
Florida ?	June?	An election controversy in Florida? Unpossible! We're now on to iteration number 432 of how to deal with Florida and Michigan, and frankly, this one probably won't work either. Were I Barack Obama, I'd make the call to just seat Florida and be done with it. Yes, that would give Clinton a net ~35 delegates, but realistically, she's going to net somewhere in the 20-delegate range if the state is rerun, and it would give her a June win that, paired with Michigan, might give her a strong closing argument. Giving Clinton 35 delegates robs Clinton of a win (she's already won!) and makes Obama look magnanimous, and probably doesn't impact the race at all. Win-win-win for Obama. Which is why Clinton may argue against it if it's floated.	?
Michigan ?	June?	Michigan, unlike Florida, really can't be given to Clinton. Nobody else was on the ballot there. Obama could try to offer up a trade to Clinton: he seats Florida if she agrees to a Michigan caucus, which benefits Obama. Even if Clinton gets 55 percent again, though, it would probably only net her 17 delegates.The open question is whether Clinton would win Michigan again in a do-over, even in a primary. It's easy to forget that her 55 percent came against "uncommitted," not exactly a ringing endorsement. And the same caveats apply to Michigan as to Florida - nobody campaigned there. I think Clinton would win, but of Florida and Michigan, this is the state Obama would rather run in.	?
TOTAL NET			42 with MI/FL	10 with no MI/FL

As you can see, the delegate count will be affected by what happens in Michigan and Florida. But here's the thing: if Obama seats Florida as-is and comes to some sort of deal to split Michigan's delegates 55-45 (as Clinton won 55 percent of the vote there), Clinton would net 42 delegates the rest of the way. That would still leave her 119 pledged delegates behind Obama, not to mention almost certainly at a disadvantage in the popular vote and the number of states won. Yes, these numbers could move - Clinton could maybe get up to 60 total, and get Obama down to near 100 delegates. But that's her best-case scenario. Barring a collapse by Obama, there's no way he loses.

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